From Iowa to New Hampshire

Compared to the nail-biter finish to the Iowa caucasus last Tuesday, next Tuesday's NH primary is likely to seem dull. Romney, after all, continues a strong lead in the polls there. But what WILL be interesting is who comes in second, because that candidate will create or sustain the media narrative going into South Carolina. Will it be Paul or Santorum? And how will Gingrich perform there?

Also keep your eye on the all-important expectations game, because the candidate who does better than predicted will likely get a big bounce in media coverage and thus, opinion polls (e.g. Rick Santorum since Iowa). (See Nate Silver's excellent analysis of how Iowa performance shapes media coverage and therefore NH performance). And if Romney does "worse than expected" in the Granite State, expect a flurry of media coverage of his "stumbling" campaign.